Where the market is wrong on Alfreton Town v Shifnal Town FC
Alfreton Town meet Shifnal Town FC in the FA Trophy final.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1444, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 39%. Attacking output favors Shifnal Town FC on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.3 per match.
Alfreton Town arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Guiseley AFC, W 2-1 v Shifnal Town FC, L 0-1 @ Bamber Bridge, L 0-2 v Stratford Town.
Shifnal Town FC are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 12 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Alfreton Town, W 3-0 v Shepshed Dynamo, W 4-2 v Rugby Borough, W 3-2 @ Coleshill Town.
Alfreton Town hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Alfreton Town 2-1 Shifnal Town FC.
The market prices ALF at 60% implied. Our number sits apart on Shifnal Town FC: a 16.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
