Where the market is wrong on Al-Markhiya v Al Ahli Doha
Al-Markhiya meet Al Ahli Doha in the QSL Cup group stage - 2 at Grand Hamad Stadium, Doha.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1468, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Al-Markhiya, 55% against 45%. Attacking output favors Al-Markhiya on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.
Al-Markhiya arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Al Ahli Doha, L 0-1 @ Lusail City, W 2-0 @ Al Rayyan SC B, W 3-0 @ Al-Gharafa B.
Al Ahli Doha are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Al-Markhiya, L 0-1 v Al Shahaniya, L 0-3 @ Al-Rayyan SC, W 1-0 v Qatar SC.
Al Ahli Doha hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Al-Markhiya 1-1 Al Ahli Doha.
The market prices AL- at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on Al-Markhiya: a 18.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
