Where the market is wrong on Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal
Borussia Dortmund meet Villarreal in the UEFA Champions League league stage - 1 at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 57%. Attacking output favors Borussia Dortmund on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.8 per match.
Borussia Dortmund arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 @ HEBC, W 2-0 v Hamburger SV, L 1-2 v Bayern München, D 2-2 v AS Roma.
Villarreal are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Alaves, D 2-2 @ Atletico Madrid, D 2-2 @ Racing Santander, W 2-1 @ Galatasaray.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Villarreal.
The market prices BOR at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on Villarreal: a 9.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
