Where the market is wrong on 22 de Julio v Santo Domingo
22 de Julio meet Santo Domingo in the Liga Pro Serie B relegation group - 1.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Santo Domingo, 50% against 20%. Attacking output favors Santo Domingo on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 12%, over 2.5 goals around 13%. Draw no bet leans Santo Domingo at 68%; double chance reads 22 de Julio or draw 57%, Santo Domingo or draw 80%.
22 de Julio arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 1 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Santo Domingo, L 0-2 @ LDU Portoviejo, L 0-1 v Deportivo Cuenca Juniors, L 0-2 @ Ind. Juniors.
Santo Domingo are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ 22 de Julio, D 0-0 v Cuniburo, D 3-3 @ Cumbayá, W 1-0 @ Atletico FC.
The market prices 22 at 23% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
