Where the market is wrong on Aluminium Arak v Kheybar Khorramabad
Aluminium Arak meet Kheybar Khorramabad in the Persian Gulf Pro League regular season - 4 at Imam Khomeini, Arak.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1480, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Kheybar Khorramabad, 50% against 42%. Attacking output favors Kheybar Khorramabad on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 27%, over 2.5 goals around 19%. Draw no bet leans Kheybar Khorramabad at 52%; double chance reads Aluminium Arak or draw 66%, Kheybar Khorramabad or draw 69%.
Aluminium Arak arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Kheybar Khorramabad, W 2-1 @ Shams Azar Qazvin, D 0-0 v Chadormalu SC, W 2-0 @ Esteghlal Khuzestan.
Kheybar Khorramabad are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Aluminium Arak, L 2-3 v Paykan, D 1-1 @ Mes Shahr-e Babak, D 1-1 v Fajr Sepasi.
Aluminium Arak hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Aluminium Arak 2-2 Kheybar Khorramabad.
The market prices ALU at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on Kheybar Khorramabad: a 4.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
