Where the market is wrong on Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Okinawa SV
Sanfrecce Hiroshima meet Okinawa SV in the Emperor Cup 2nd round at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1674 to 1400. Recent form leans Sanfrecce Hiroshima, 74% against 33%. Attacking output favors Sanfrecce Hiroshima on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 84%. Draw no bet leans Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 75%; double chance reads Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw 81%, Okinawa SV or draw 43%.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts), 16 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Okinawa SV, D 1-1 v Kawasaki Frontale, W 4-1 @ Urawa, W 3-0 v JEF United Chiba.
Okinawa SV are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 4 scored and 20 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Sanfrecce Hiroshima, W 2-1 @ Kitakyushu, L 1-6 v Kyoto Sanga, L 0-6 @ Veertien Mie.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-1 Okinawa SV.
The market prices SAN at 80% implied. Our number sits apart on Okinawa SV: a 12.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
