Where the market is wrong on Ulinzi Stars v Tusker
Ulinzi Stars meet Tusker in the FKF Premier League regular season - 1.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1516, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 50%. Attacking output favors Ulinzi Stars on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Ulinzi Stars arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Posta Rangers FC, W 2-0 v Tusker, W 2-1 v Mathare United, L 0-2 v AFC Leopards.
Tusker are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v KVZ, L 0-1 v Rayon Sports, L 0-2 @ Al Hilal Omdurman, W 2-1 v Police.
The market prices ULI at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 62 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
