Where the market is wrong on Francavilla v USD Palmese
Francavilla meet USD Palmese in the Serie D - Girone H group h - 3.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 55%. Attacking output favors Francavilla on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Francavilla arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v USD Palmese, L 1-2 @ Bisceglie, W 1-0 v Ischia, W 2-0 v Afragolese.
USD Palmese are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 2 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Francavilla, D 0-0 v Turris, L 1-3 @ Virtus Francavilla, L 0-2 v Monastir.
USD Palmese hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Francavilla 0-1 USD Palmese.
The market prices FRA at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
