Where the market is wrong on SC Freiburg v Motherwell
SC Freiburg meet Motherwell in the UEFA Europa Conference League playoff round at Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg.
SC Freiburg rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1454. Recent form leans SC Freiburg, 68% against 43%. Attacking output favors SC Freiburg on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.4 per match.
SC Freiburg arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 19 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Werder Bremen, W 4-1 v Motherwell, W 5-1 @ Fortuna Düsseldorf, W 3-1 @ Motherwell.
Motherwell are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 @ ST Mirren, L 1-4 @ SC Freiburg, L 1-3 v SC Freiburg, L 0-1 @ Stenhousemuir.
SC Freiburg hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: SC Freiburg 4-1 Motherwell.
The market prices SC at 80% implied. Our number sits apart on Motherwell: a 17.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
