Where the market is wrong on Staphorst v Excelsior '31
Staphorst meet Excelsior '31 in the Derde Divisie regular season - 2.
The baseline ratings are close, 1408 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Excelsior '31, 50% against 35%. Attacking output favors Excelsior '31 on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 75%, over 2.5 goals around 81%. Draw no bet leans Excelsior '31 at 60%; double chance reads Staphorst or draw 57%, Excelsior '31 or draw 71%.
Staphorst arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 v Excelsior '31, D 2-2 @ Dovo, W 2-1 v ROHDA Raalte, L 1-3 @ Excelsior '31.
Excelsior '31 are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 14 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 4-2 @ Staphorst, W 4-0 v Eemdijk, W 2-1 @ URK, W 3-1 v Staphorst.
Excelsior '31 hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 3 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Staphorst 2-4 Excelsior '31.
The market prices STA at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Excelsior '31: a 12.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
