Where the market is wrong on Malavan v Fajr Sepasi
Malavan meet Fajr Sepasi in the Persian Gulf Pro League regular season - 3 at Sirous Ghayeghran Stadium, Bandar-e Anzali.
The baseline ratings are close, 1520 to 1480, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 47%. Attacking output favors Fajr Sepasi on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 29%, over 2.5 goals around 20%. Draw no bet leans Malavan at 51%; double chance reads Malavan or draw 68%, Fajr Sepasi or draw 67%.
Malavan arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Fajr Sepasi, W 2-1 v ZOB Ahan, D 1-1 @ Sanat Naft, D 1-1 v Tractor Sazi.
Fajr Sepasi are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Malavan, D 0-0 v Sanat Naft, D 1-1 @ Kheybar Khorramabad, L 1-2 @ Esteghlal FC.
The market prices MAL at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on Fajr Sepasi: a 3.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 59 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
