Nestos Chrisoupolis v Apollon Pontou

Nestos Chrisoupolis meet Apollon Pontou in the Cup qualifying round.

Apollon Pontou rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1730 to 1592. Recent form leans Apollon Pontou, 80% against 63%. Attacking output favors Apollon Pontou on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 27%, over 2.5 goals around 26%. Draw no bet leans Apollon Pontou at 62%; double chance reads Nestos Chrisoupolis or draw 58%, Apollon Pontou or draw 75%.

Nestos Chrisoupolis arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Apollon Pontou, D 2-2 @ Kavala, W 1-0 v PAS Giannina, D 1-1 @ PAOK II.

Apollon Pontou are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Nestos Chrisoupolis, W 2-0 v Panthrakikos, D 0-0 @ Elassona, W 3-2 v Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou.

The market prices NES at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Apollon Pontou: a 19.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.