Where the market is wrong on Gubbio v Perugia
Gubbio meet Perugia in the Serie C - Girone B girone b - 8 at Stadio Pietro Barbetti, Gubbio.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Perugia, 53% against 40%. Attacking output favors Gubbio on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Gubbio arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Perugia, L 0-2 @ Ravenna, L 0-2 v Ostia Mare, D 1-1 @ Pescara.
Perugia are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Gubbio, W 1-0 v Reggiana, L 0-2 @ Grosseto, L 0-3 v Spezia.
Perugia hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Gubbio 1-3 Perugia.
The market prices GUB at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on Gubbio: a 4.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
