Where the market is wrong on Grosseto v Spezia
Grosseto meet Spezia in the Serie C - Girone B girone b - 1 at Stadio Carlo Zecchini, Grosseto.
The baseline ratings are close, 1541 to 1432, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Grosseto, 55% against 42%. Attacking output favors Spezia on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 58%. Draw no bet leans Grosseto at 56%; double chance reads Grosseto or draw 69%, Spezia or draw 61%.
Grosseto arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Ostia Mare, D 1-1 v Spezia, L 2-3 v Guidonia Montecelio 1937, W 3-1 v Terranuova Traiana.
Spezia are steady: 1W-4D-0L from their last five (7/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Grosseto, W 4-1 v Torres, D 1-1 @ Empoli, D 1-1 @ Pescara.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Grosseto 1-1 Spezia.
The market prices GRO at 23% implied. Our number sits apart on Grosseto: a 16.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
