Where the market is wrong on Aston Villa W v Manchester City W
Aston Villa W meet Manchester City W in the FA WSL regular season - 2 at Villa Park, Birmingham.
Manchester City W rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1753 to 1400. Recent form leans Manchester City W, 83% against 28%. Attacking output favors Manchester City W on expected goals, 3.0 to 1.3 per match.
Aston Villa W arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 3 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Manchester City W, D 1-1 @ Chelsea W, L 1-2 @ London City Lionesses W, L 0-3 v Arsenal W.
Manchester City W are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 18 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 @ Aston Villa W, W 3-1 v Birmingham City W, W 4-0 @ Brighton W, W 4-1 @ West Ham W.
The market prices AST at 11% implied. Our number sits apart on Aston Villa W: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 59 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output