Grosseto v San Donato Tavarnelle

Grosseto meet San Donato Tavarnelle in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes Grosseto the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% GRO, 33% draw, 25% SAN.

Grosseto rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1565 to 1400. Recent form leans Grosseto, 58% against 35%. Attacking output favors Grosseto on expected goals, 1.5 to 0.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 26%, over 2.5 goals around 25%. Draw no bet leans Grosseto at 63%; double chance reads Grosseto or draw 75%, San Donato Tavarnelle or draw 58%.

Grosseto arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Desenzano Calvina, L 2-3 v Ostia Mare, W 3-0 @ Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano, L 0-2 v San Donato Tavarnelle.

San Donato Tavarnelle are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 5 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Seravezza, W 2-0 @ Grosseto, W 1-0 v Foligno Calcio, W 1-0 v Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano.

Grosseto hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Grosseto 0-2 San Donato Tavarnelle.

The market prices GRO at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.