Where the market is wrong on Chertsey Town v Chesham United
Chertsey Town meet Chesham United in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes Chesham United the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 32% CHE, 27% draw, 41% CHE.
The baseline ratings are close, 1577 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 61% against 60%. Attacking output favors Chesham United on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 81%, over 2.5 goals around 85%. Draw no bet leans Chesham United at 56%; double chance reads Chertsey Town or draw 59%, Chesham United or draw 68%.
Chertsey Town arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Hampton & Richmond, W 2-0 v Wealdstone, W 4-1 @ Egham Town, W 1-0 v Hungerford Town.
Chesham United are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 14 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 6-2 @ Basingstoke Town, D 2-2 @ Dover, L 0-2 v Chelmsford City, L 2-4 @ Bath City.
The market prices CHE at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on Chertsey Town: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output