Where the market is wrong on Boden v IFK Luleå
Boden meet IFK Luleå in the Division 2 - Norrland norrland - promotion round.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans IFK Luleå, 63% against 53%. Attacking output favors IFK Luleå on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.3 per match.
Boden arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v IFK Luleå, L 1-6 @ Kubikenborg, L 1-2 v Kubikenborg, D 2-2 @ Skellefteå.
IFK Luleå are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Boden, W 2-1 @ Täfteå, W 2-1 v Täfteå, W 1-0 @ Lucksta.
Boden hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Boden 1-0 IFK Luleå.
The market prices BOD at 20% implied. Our number sits apart on Boden: a 7.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
