Vermont Green v Asheville City

Vermont Green meet Asheville City in the USL League Two quarter-finals at Virtue Field, undefined. The model makes Vermont Green the most likely outcome at 49%, with the full read 49% VER, 28% draw, 24% ASH.

Vermont Green rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1834 to 1673. Recent form leans Vermont Green, 95% against 75%. Attacking output favors Vermont Green on expected goals, 4.2 to 1.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 79%. Draw no bet leans Vermont Green at 67%; double chance reads Vermont Green or draw 76%, Asheville City or draw 51%.

Vermont Green arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 23 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 7-1 @ Laredo Heat, W 4-0 v Asheville City, W 4-0 v Ocean City Nor'easters, W 4-0 v Ironbound.

Asheville City are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 @ Vermont Green, W 4-2 v Appalachian, W 3-2 @ Lionsbridge, W 1-0 v Virginia Beach City.

Vermont Green hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Vermont Green 4-0 Asheville City.

The market prices VER at 59% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.