Caldas v Mafra: the model read
Caldas meet Mafra in the Liga 3 regular season - 7 at Campo da Mata, Caldas da Rainha. The model makes Mafra the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 28% CAL, 32% draw, 40% MAF.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Mafra, 50% against 33%. Attacking output favors Mafra on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 34%. Draw no bet leans Mafra at 58%; double chance reads Caldas or draw 60%, Mafra or draw 72%.
Caldas arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ 1º Dezembro, D 1-1 v SC Covilha, L 0-2 @ Atlético CP, W 2-1 @ Amora.
Mafra are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Alverca, L 2-3 @ FC Fredericia, W 2-0 @ Esbjerg, L 1-3 @ CF Os Belenenses.
Mafra hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Mafra 4-2 Caldas.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
