Zenit won the Super Cup on penalties after a 1-1 draw, a result that required a stoppage-time penalty from A. Sobolev just to force extra time and then a dramatic shootout settled by his second spot-kick in the 125th minute. The data, however minimal, confirms the match was tightly balanced. The Lemeister model had made Zenit slight favourites before kick-off, giving them a 43 per cent win probability, and the actual outcome – a draw after 120 minutes followed by a penalty success – broadly aligned with that projection of a close contest.
Spartak Moscow took the lead in the 25th minute through C. Martins. The goal was a normal strike, and it stood as the only score of the first half. Despite the absence of further goals in regulation, the match was not short of incident. Five yellow cards were issued in normal time, three of them to Zenit players – Nino in the 53rd minute, Pedrinho in the 58th, and D. Adamov in the 94th – while Spartak's G. Fernandes was booked in the 38th. Discipline was a clear factor; Zenit's eleven yellow-card count across the entire match (with N. Alip also cautioned in the 101st minute) suggests a side that struggled to control the tempo without fouling.
The decisive phase began in second-half stoppage time. With Zenit needing a goal to avoid defeat, A. Sobolev converted a penalty in the 98th minute to make it 1-1. That strike was his first of two crucial spot-kicks, the second coming in the shootout. Extra time produced no further goals from open play, but three more yellow cards – including one for N. Alip – pointed to increasing tension. Both teams used all five substitutions, a sign of the physical demands of a 120-minute final.
The penalty shootout was a marathon of eight successful kicks, with only one miss across the entire sequence. I. Diveev, Felipe Augusto, Jhon Jhon and A. Sobolev all scored for Zenit. Spartak matched them through P. Solar and C. Wooh, but it was not enough to prevent Zenit from prevailing. The absence of goalkeepers from the named players list means no individual save statistics are available, but the fact that only one penalty was missed – Spartak's – effectively decided the trophy.
With no possession, shots or expected goals data provided, the narrative of the match must be built around the timing of goals, the disciplinary record and the shootout outcome. Zenit's ability to score a stoppage-time equaliser and then hold their nerve from the spot proved decisive. Their defensive structure, while occasionally stretched enough to concede five yellow cards, held firm when it mattered most.
For Spartak Moscow, the early lead through C. Martins gave them a platform they could not protect. Their single yellow card in regular time suggests they controlled the game's discipline, but they could not prevent Zenit from finding a route back. The Super Cup is a one-off decider, and the draw after 120 minutes means both sides shared the game's competitive flow. The Lemeister model's pre-match read of a narrow Zenit advantage proved accurate in the final reckoning, though the margin of victory was as fine as a penalty shootout can provide.
