Where the market is wrong on Lincoln Red Imps FC v Mjallby AIF
Lincoln Red Imps FC meet Mjallby AIF in the UEFA Champions League 2nd qualifying round at Europa Sports Complex, Gibraltar. The model makes Lincoln Red Imps FC the most likely outcome at 58%, with the full read 58% LIN, 24% draw, 18% MJA.
Lincoln Red Imps FC rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1776 to 1492. Recent form leans Lincoln Red Imps FC, 88% against 50%. Attacking output favors Lincoln Red Imps FC on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 80%. Draw no bet leans Lincoln Red Imps FC at 76%; double chance reads Lincoln Red Imps FC or draw 82%, Mjallby AIF or draw 42%.
Lincoln Red Imps FC arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Mjallby AIF, D 1-1 @ Inter Club d'Escaldes, W 3-1 v Inter Club d'Escaldes, W 4-1 v Lynx.
Mjallby AIF are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Kalmar FF, W 3-0 v Lincoln Red Imps FC, D 0-0 v Vasteras SK FK, L 1-2 v AIK Stockholm.
Mjallby AIF hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Mjallby AIF 3-0 Lincoln Red Imps FC.
The market prices LIN at 15% implied. Our number sits apart on Lincoln Red Imps FC: a 42.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 87 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
