Where the market is wrong on CF Montreal v Vancouver Whitecaps
CF Montreal meet Vancouver Whitecaps in the Canadian Championship semi-finals at Saputo Stadium, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 48%. Attacking output favors Vancouver Whitecaps on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.
CF Montreal arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Vancouver Whitecaps, L 0-1 @ Colorado Rapids, L 1-2 v Charlotte, L 0-2 @ Philadelphia Union.
Vancouver Whitecaps are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ CF Montreal, L 1-2 v Austin, W 3-0 v Los Angeles Galaxy, L 1-3 v St. Louis City.
The market prices CF at 23% implied. Our number sits apart on CF Montreal: a 7.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
