Where the market is wrong on Cambuur v Volos NFC
Cambuur meet Volos NFC in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes Cambuur the most likely outcome at 51%, with the full read 51% CAM, 27% draw, 22% VOL.
Cambuur rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1615 to 1400. Recent form leans Cambuur, 65% against 23%. Attacking output favors Cambuur on expected goals, 1.7 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 66%. Draw no bet leans Cambuur at 69%; double chance reads Cambuur or draw 78%, Volos NFC or draw 49%.
Cambuur arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Utrecht, W 2-1 v Roda, L 2-3 @ Excelsior, W 2-1 v Vitesse.
Volos NFC are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 4 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Groningen, L 1-3 @ OFI, L 1-2 v Aris Thessalonikis, L 0-3 v Levadiakos.
The market prices CAM at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Cambuur: a 6.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 71 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
