Where the market is wrong on llanelli AFC v Baglan Dragons
llanelli AFC meet Baglan Dragons in the FAW Championship south - 10 at Stebonheath Park, Llanelli.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Baglan Dragons, 38% against 15%. Attacking output favors Baglan Dragons on expected goals, 0.8 to 0.6 per match.
llanelli AFC arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 1 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Baglan Dragons, L 0-2 @ Llantwit Major, L 0-3 @ Caerau (Ely), L 0-2 v Treowen Stars.
Baglan Dragons are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ llanelli AFC, L 1-2 v Carmarthen Town, L 1-2 @ Cardiff Draconians, W 2-1 v Afan Lido.
llanelli AFC hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: llanelli AFC 1-2 Baglan Dragons.
The market prices LLA at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
