Progreso v Deportivo Maldonado: the model read
Progreso meet Deportivo Maldonado in the Primera División - Apertura torneo intermedio - 6 at Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo. The model makes Deportivo Maldonado the most likely outcome at 47%, with the full read 23% PRO, 30% draw, 47% DEP.
Deportivo Maldonado rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1615 to 1400. Recent form leans Deportivo Maldonado, 65% against 30%. Attacking output favors Deportivo Maldonado on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Deportivo Maldonado at 67%; double chance reads Progreso or draw 53%, Deportivo Maldonado or draw 77%.
Progreso arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Deportivo Maldonado, L 0-2 @ Wanderers, L 1-2 v Albion FC, W 2-1 @ Danubio.
Deportivo Maldonado are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Progreso, D 1-1 v Albion FC, W 4-2 @ Atletico Torque, W 3-0 v Club Nacional.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Progreso 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado.
The market prices PRO at 23% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 2.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
