Where the market is wrong on Penafiel v Academica
Penafiel meet Academica in the Segunda Liga regular season - 5 at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1541, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 55%. Attacking output favors Penafiel on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.
Penafiel arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 11 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Academica, W 3-0 @ FC Porto B, W 2-0 v Sporting CP B, D 2-2 @ Torreense.
Academica are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Penafiel, L 0-2 v Lusitânia Lourosa, W 2-0 @ Tondela, W 1-0 v Feirense.
Academica hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Penafiel 4-1 Academica.
The market prices PEN at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Academica: a 6.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 66 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
