Where the market is wrong on Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen meet Union Berlin in the Bundesliga regular season - 2 at BayArena, Leverkusen.
Bayer Leverkusen rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1613 to 1466. Recent form leans Bayer Leverkusen, 63% against 45%. Attacking output favors Bayer Leverkusen on expected goals, 2.5 to 2.2 per match.
Bayer Leverkusen arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ SV Elversberg, W 4-0 @ SV Wehen, W 2-1 @ Newcastle, L 1-2 @ Nottingham Forest.
Union Berlin are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 14 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Eintracht Frankfurt, W 4-2 @ Eintracht Braunschweig, L 2-4 v Ipswich, W 3-2 v Aris.
Bayer Leverkusen hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
The market prices BAY at 65% implied. Our number sits apart on Union Berlin: a 13.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
