Where the market is wrong on Bastia v Amiens
Bastia meet Amiens in the Ligue 3 regular season - 5 at Stade Armand Cesari, Bastia.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1456, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 42%. Attacking output favors Amiens on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.0 per match.
Bastia arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Amiens, W 1-0 @ Caen, L 2-3 v Versailles, W 1-0 @ Aubagne.
Amiens are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Bastia, W 3-0 v Versailles, L 0-1 @ Le Puy Foot, L 0-1 v La Roche VF.
Amiens hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Bastia 0-3 Amiens.
The market prices BAS at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Amiens: a 10.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 77 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
