Where the market is wrong on Nesebar v Beroe
Nesebar meet Beroe in the Second League regular season - 10 at Gradski stadion, Nesebar.
Nesebar rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1684 to 1500. Recent form leans Nesebar, 75% against 50%. Attacking output favors Nesebar on expected goals, 3.0 to 1.4 per match.
Nesebar arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 4-3 v Beroe, D 1-1 @ Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, W 2-1 v Rilski Sportist, L 0-1 @ Marek.
Beroe are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 3-4 @ Nesebar, W 1-0 v Sportist Svoge, D 2-2 @ Dobrudzha, D 0-0 v Montana.
Nesebar hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Nesebar 4-3 Beroe.
The market prices NES at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on Nesebar: a 16.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 85 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
