Where the market is wrong on Marek v Dobrudzha
Marek meet Dobrudzha in the Second League regular season - 5 at Stadion Bonchuk, Dupnitsa.
Marek rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1565 to 1400. Recent form leans Marek, 58% against 25%. Attacking output favors Dobrudzha on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 33%, over 2.5 goals around 32%. Draw no bet leans Marek at 62%; double chance reads Marek or draw 74%, Dobrudzha or draw 58%.
Marek arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 4-2 v Dobrudzha, L 0-1 @ Montana, L 0-1 @ Etar Veliko Tarnovo, L 1-2 @ Spartak Pleven.
Dobrudzha are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 @ Marek, L 0-1 v Yantra 2019, L 0-2 @ Nesebar, D 0-0 v Sportist Svoge.
Dobrudzha hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Marek 4-2 Dobrudzha.
The market prices MAR at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on Dobrudzha: a 9.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
