Where the market is wrong on Celta Vigo v Malaga
Celta Vigo meet Malaga in the La Liga regular season - 5.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Malaga, 57% against 43%. Attacking output favors Malaga on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.
Celta Vigo arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Athletic Club, L 1-2 v Osasuna, D 0-0 @ Valencia, D 1-1 @ Napoli.
Malaga are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 @ Real Madrid, D 1-1 v Deportivo La Coruna, L 0-2 @ Atletico Madrid, D 2-2 v Fulham.
Malaga hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2018: Celta Vigo 0-0 Malaga.
The market prices CEL at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on Malaga: a 21.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
