Where the market is wrong on Alaves v Osasuna
Alaves meet Osasuna in the La Liga regular season - 4 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Alaves, 57% against 45%. Attacking output favors Alaves on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.
Alaves arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 9 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Villarreal, D 1-1 @ Rayo Vallecano, W 3-0 v Getafe, D 1-1 @ Racing Santander.
Osasuna are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Getafe, W 2-1 @ Celta Vigo, D 0-0 v Levante, L 0-2 v Al Ain.
The market prices ALA at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on Osasuna: a 3.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
