Timor-Leste v Indonesia: the model read
Timor-Leste meet Indonesia in the ASEAN Championship group stage - 3 at Chonburi Daikin Stadium, Chonburi. The model makes Indonesia the most likely outcome at 54%, with the full read 21% TIM, 26% draw, 54% IND.
Indonesia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1541 to 1400. Recent form leans Indonesia, 53% against 28%. Attacking output favors Indonesia on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 54%, over 2.5 goals around 77%. Draw no bet leans Indonesia at 72%; double chance reads Timor-Leste or draw 46%, Indonesia or draw 79%.
Timor-Leste arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Singapore, L 0-7 v Vietnam, W 3-1 v Brunei, W 3-0 @ Brunei.
Indonesia are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 13 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v Cambodia, W 1-0 v Mozambique, W 3-0 v Oman, L 0-1 v Bulgaria.
Indonesia hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2022: Indonesia 3-0 Timor-Leste.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
