Burnley v Notts County: the model read
Burnley meet Notts County in the League Cup round of 128 at Turf Moor, Burnley.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Notts County, 53% against 20%. Attacking output favors Notts County on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Burnley arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Middlesbrough, L 1-4 @ Norwich, D 0-0 @ Bradford, L 1-3 @ West Brom.
Notts County are steady: 1W-4D-0L from their last five (7/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Doncaster, W 2-1 v Burton Albion, D 2-2 @ Luton, D 1-1 v Leicester.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Burnley 1-1 Notts County.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
