Where the market is wrong on Ballymena United v Portadown
Ballymena United meet Portadown in the Premiership regular season - 9 at Ballymena Showgrounds, Ballymena.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Ballymena United, 55% against 37%. Attacking output favors Ballymena United on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.2 per match.
Ballymena United arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Portadown, D 1-1 @ Dungannon Swifts, D 1-1 v Carrick Rangers, L 2-3 @ Coleraine FC.
Portadown are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Ballymena United, L 1-3 @ Bangor, D 1-1 v Linfield, L 0-2 v Larne.
Portadown hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ballymena United 2-0 Portadown.
The market prices BAL at 55% implied. Our number sits apart on Portadown: a 3.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
