Where the market is wrong on Akhmat v Baltika
Akhmat meet Baltika in the Premier League regular season - 10 at Akhmat-Arena, Groznyj.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Akhmat, 60% against 48%. Attacking output favors Baltika on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.
Akhmat arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Akron, W 3-2 v Dinamo Makhachkala, D 1-1 @ Rubin, L 0-3 @ Dynamo.
Baltika are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Zenit, D 2-2 @ Fakel, L 0-1 v Lokomotiv, D 0-0 v Krylia Sovetov.
Baltika hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Akhmat 1-1 Baltika.
The market prices AKH at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Baltika: a 5.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 65 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
