Where the market is wrong on Kashima v Avispa Fukuoka
Kashima meet Avispa Fukuoka in the J1 League regular season - 3 at Mercari Stadium, Kashima.
Kashima rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1742 to 1500. Recent form leans Kashima, 83% against 53%. Attacking output favors Kashima on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans Kashima at 65%; double chance reads Kashima or draw 75%, Avispa Fukuoka or draw 54%.
Kashima arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 17 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Suzuka Unlimited, W 3-2 v Avispa Fukuoka, W 2-1 v Nagoya Grampus, W 4-3 @ Yokohama F. Marinos.
Avispa Fukuoka are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Verspah Oita, L 2-3 @ Kashima, W 3-0 v Cerezo Osaka, L 0-1 v Vissel Kobe.
Kashima hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Kashima 3-2 Avispa Fukuoka.
The market prices KAS at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on Avispa Fukuoka: a 6.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
