Where the market is wrong on Nice v Lille
Nice meet Lille in the Ligue 1 regular season - 5 at Allianz Riviera, Nice.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Lille, 63% against 50%. Attacking output favors Lille on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.1 per match.
Nice arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Lille, L 0-1 @ Auxerre, D 1-1 v Le Mans, L 0-3 @ Paris FC.
Lille are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Nice, W 2-0 v Estac Troyes, L 2-3 v Real Betis, W 1-0 @ Toulouse.
Nice hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Nice 2-1 Lille.
The market prices NIC at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
