Where the market is wrong on Vardar Skopje v Bregalnica Štip
Vardar Skopje meet Bregalnica Štip in the First League regular season - 1 at National Arena Toshe Proeski, Skopje. The model makes Bregalnica Štip the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 26% VAR, 28% draw, 46% BRE.
The baseline ratings are close, 1661 to 1765, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Bregalnica Štip, 85% against 70%. Attacking output favors Bregalnica Štip on expected goals, 3.0 to 2.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 67%. Draw no bet leans Bregalnica Štip at 65%; double chance reads Vardar Skopje or draw 54%, Bregalnica Štip or draw 74%.
Vardar Skopje arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 9 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 2-5 @ Riga, W 2-0 v Bregalnica Štip, L 2-3 v Riga, W 3-2 @ KuPS.
Bregalnica Štip are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 12 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Vardar Skopje, W 7-0 v Pobeda, W 3-0 @ Osogovo, D 1-1 v Shkëndija Haraçinë.
The market prices VAR at 84% implied. Our number sits apart on Bregalnica Štip: a 41.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
