Where the market is wrong on Ludogorets v Botev Vratsa
Ludogorets meet Botev Vratsa in the First League regular season - 3 at Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad. The model makes Botev Vratsa the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 32% LUD, 33% draw, 35% BOT.
The baseline ratings are close, 1541 to 1601, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Botev Vratsa, 66% against 55%. Attacking output favors Botev Vratsa on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 28%. Draw no bet leans Botev Vratsa at 52%; double chance reads Ludogorets or draw 65%, Botev Vratsa or draw 68%.
Ludogorets arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 5 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Dunav Ruse, L 0-2 @ Hapoel Tel Aviv, W 1-0 v Lokomotiv Plovdiv, W 1-0 v Teuta Durrës.
Botev Vratsa are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ CSKA 1948, D 1-1 v Cherno More Varna, W 1-0 v Arda Kardzhali, D 2-2 v Beitar Jerusalem.
The market prices LUD at 74% implied. Our number sits apart on Botev Vratsa: a 26.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
