Where the market is wrong on Rot-Weiß Essen v FC St. Pauli
Rot-Weiß Essen meet FC St. Pauli in the DFB Pokal round of 64 at Stadion an der Hafenstrasse, Essen.
Rot-Weiß Essen rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1431. Recent form leans Rot-Weiß Essen, 60% against 40%. Attacking output favors Rot-Weiß Essen on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 77%, over 2.5 goals around 87%. Draw no bet leans Rot-Weiß Essen at 63%; double chance reads Rot-Weiß Essen or draw 73%, FC St. Pauli or draw 53%.
Rot-Weiß Essen arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v FC St. Pauli, W 1-0 v Havelse, L 2-5 @ FC Saarbrücken, L 0-3 @ Bayer Leverkusen.
FC St. Pauli are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Rot-Weiß Essen, D 2-2 @ Holstein Kiel, D 1-1 v SpVgg Greuther Fürth, D 2-2 v Deportivo La Coruna.
Rot-Weiß Essen hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Rot-Weiß Essen 2-0 FC St. Pauli.
The market prices ROT at 30% implied. Our number sits apart on Rot-Weiß Essen: a 16.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
