Where the market is wrong on Chico v Alianza Valledupar
Chico meet Alianza Valledupar in the Primera A clausura - 3 at Estadio La Independencia, Tunja.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1432, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 39%. Attacking output favors Alianza Valledupar on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Chico arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Alianza Valledupar, W 2-1 v Independiente Medellin, W 2-0 v Once Caldas, D 2-2 @ Águilas Doradas.
Alianza Valledupar are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 4 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Chico, W 1-0 v Junior, L 0-1 @ Once Caldas, L 0-3 @ America de Cali.
The market prices CHI at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on Alianza Valledupar: a 15.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
