Myanmar U19 began as a narrow 41 per cent favourite in the Lemeister model, and a 3-1 victory over Timor-Leste U19 justified that marginal billing. The final score mirrored the model's projection of a 3-2 away win closely, though the winning margin was settled by a fourth goal deep into stoppage time. The decisive phase arrived immediately after half-time, when Myanmar overturned a one-goal deficit in the space of eight minutes to take control of a contest that had been finely balanced in the first period.
Timor-Leste U19 struck the only goal of the opening half through M. Caeiro in the 41st minute. That strike came against the run of a first period in which neither side had created a clear statistical advantage. The goal gave the home side a slender lead to protect at the interval, but the turnaround after the restart was swift and clinical.
Myanmar equalised four minutes into the second half when M. P. Sone L. found the net in the 49th minute, restoring parity. The momentum then shifted decisively. S. Zarni put Myanmar ahead in the 57th minute, and the visitors never looked back. B. B. Kyaw S. added a fourth in the 91st minute, the only goal of the match after the 57th minute, sealing the result with a late insurance strike. All four goals in the match were normal goals, with no penalties or own goals, and no assists were recorded in the data.
The statistical narrative supports Myanmar's dominance in the decisive second half. The match data shows Myanmar had the better of possession, controlling 56 per cent of the ball to Timor-Leste's 44 per cent. That territorial advantage translated into a significant disparity in chance creation. Myanmar registered 17 total shots, compared to Timor-Leste's five, and their eight shots on target far exceeded the home side's single effort. The expected goals figures underline the efficiency of Myanmar's finishing: they generated an xG of 2.5 from their 17 attempts, while Timor-Leste's xG of 0.7 reflects a quieter afternoon in attack. Myanmar completed 475 passes at an 84 per cent accuracy rate, a notable improvement on Timor-Leste's 333 passes at 79 per cent. The visitors also won eight corners to Timor-Leste's three, further evidence of sustained pressure. There were no cards issued in the match.
No individual player ratings were provided to identify the standout performers by the numbers, but the scorers M. P. Sone L., S. Zarni and B. B. Kyaw S. were the decisive contributors for Myanmar. M. Caeiro's equalising goal for Timor-Leste was the home side's only moment of genuine threat, and their single shot on target from five attempts explains the paucity of their attacking output.
For Timor-Leste U19, this result leaves them with one point from three group matches, having drawn one and lost two. Myanmar U19 move to six points from three games, with two wins and one loss, placing them in a strong position to advance from the group stage in the ASEAN Championship U19. The Lemeister model's pre-match projection of a 3-2 scoreline and a 41 per cent win probability for Myanmar accurately captured the likely outcome, though the clean defensive performance in the second half was better than the projection suggested.
