Mirassol v Gremio: the model read
Mirassol meet Gremio in the Copa Do Brasil round of 16. The model makes Gremio the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 31% MIR, 32% draw, 37% GRE.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 57%. Attacking output favors Gremio on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 42%, over 2.5 goals around 35%. Draw no bet leans Gremio at 54%; double chance reads Mirassol or draw 63%, Gremio or draw 69%.
Mirassol arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Vasco DA Gama, W 2-1 v Gremio, L 0-1 @ Atletico Paranaense, L 0-1 @ Lanus.
Gremio are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Fluminense, L 2-3 @ Bolívar, L 1-2 @ Mirassol, W 3-1 v Cruzeiro.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
