Where the market is wrong on Sutton Utd v Folkestone Invicta
Sutton Utd meet Folkestone Invicta in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes Folkestone Invicta the most likely outcome at 50%, with the full read 24% SUT, 26% draw, 50% FOL.
Folkestone Invicta rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1627 to 1432. Recent form leans Folkestone Invicta, 68% against 39%. Attacking output favors Folkestone Invicta on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 77%. Draw no bet leans Folkestone Invicta at 68%; double chance reads Sutton Utd or draw 50%, Folkestone Invicta or draw 76%.
Sutton Utd arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Horsham, D 1-1 v Walton & Hersham, L 1-2 v AFC Wimbledon, W 2-0 @ Tonbridge Angels.
Folkestone Invicta are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Sholing, W 2-0 v Charlton Athletic U21, L 1-3 @ Cray Wanderers, D 0-0 v Dartford.
The market prices SUT at 63% implied. Our number sits apart on Folkestone Invicta: a 35.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 85 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
