Where the market is wrong on Solihull Moors v Burton Albion
Solihull Moors meet Burton Albion in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes Burton Albion the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 33% SOL, 32% draw, 34% BUR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 45%. Attacking output favors Solihull Moors on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 32%. Draw no bet leans Burton Albion at 51%; double chance reads Solihull Moors or draw 66%, Burton Albion or draw 67%.
Solihull Moors arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Hereford, W 2-1 @ Hednesford Town, L 0-3 v Birmingham, D 1-1 @ Alvechurch.
Burton Albion are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Birmingham, L 0-3 v Leicester, D 0-0 @ Alfreton Town, D 2-2 @ Leyton Orient.
The market prices SOL at 21% implied. Our number sits apart on Solihull Moors: a 12.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
