Badajoz defeated Moralo 2-0 in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 final, a result that reflected a clear statistical superiority in finishing and defensive solidity. The Lemeister model had identified Badajoz as narrow favourites with a 38 per cent win probability, projecting a 1-0 away victory. The actual outcome exceeded that expectation by one goal, confirming the model's assessment that Badajoz held the edge, though the margin was wider than forecast.
The match remained goalless until the 54th minute, when A. Alegria scored a normal goal to put Badajoz ahead. No assist was recorded for the goal, but the timing suggests it came after a period of sustained pressure that may have been reflected in the underlying expected goals data. The second goal arrived in the 84th minute, scored by P. Crespo, also a normal goal without an assist. This late strike effectively ended Moralo's hopes of a comeback, as the home side had only six minutes of normal time to respond. The two goals, spaced 30 minutes apart, indicate Badajoz's ability to maintain attacking threat across both halves without overcommitting defensively.
The statistics provided are limited to the goals timeline and the model's pre-match projection. No possession, shots, passing, corners, or card data are available for analysis. The absence of cards suggests a disciplined contest, with neither side forced into tactical adjustments due to bookings or dismissals. Similarly, the lack of substitutions points to a match where both managers trusted their starting lineups to execute the game plan. The clean sheet for Badajoz underscores a defensive performance that neutralised Moralo's attacking efforts across the full 90 minutes.
Without player ratings in the data, individual assessments are restricted to the two goalscorers. A. Alegria contributed the opener, a crucial breakthrough that shifted the momentum firmly in Badajoz's favour. P. Crespo added the second goal, providing the insurance that confirmed the victory. Both players scored from open play, indicating a clinical edge in front of goal that Moralo could not match. The absence of assists suggests the goals were not the product of set-piece routines or clearly defined build-up play, but rather individual moments of quality in general play.
The competition context adds weight to this result. The Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 final determined the champion for the season, with Badajoz claiming the title through this victory. Moralo, as the losing finalist, finished as runners-up. The 2-0 scoreline represents a decisive margin in a match where the Lemeister model had anticipated a one-goal difference. Badajoz's ability to outperform the expected margin highlights their efficiency, while Moralo's failure to score in either half confirms their offensive struggles on the night.
For Badajoz, this victory secures the Group 14 championship, a significant achievement in the final match of the season. Moralo must now regroup after failing to trouble the scorers in the decisive fixture. The clinical contributions of Alegria and Crespo proved the difference, providing the goals that separated the two sides. The Lemeister model's pre-match read, which gave Badajoz a 38 per cent chance of winning, proved accurate in outcome if slightly conservative in margin. The final result underscores Badajoz's ability to convert opportunities when they mattered most.
