ES Tunis won the Cup final against ES Zarzis 1-0 at the Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi, a result that was broadly in line with the Lemeister model's pre-match assessment. The model had given ES Tunis a 40% chance of victory, making them marginal favourites, while ES Zarzis were rated at 23% and the draw at 37%. The single goal proved decisive, but the narrative of the match was defined by discipline as much as by attacking quality.
The only goal arrived in the 62nd minute, scored by H. Rafia. It was a normal goal with no assist recorded, and it separated the sides for the final half-hour. That solitary strike was enough because ES Tunis’s defending, as a collective unit, held firm against whatever ES Zarzis could produce in response. The match data shows no individual shots, expected goals or possession figures to analyse, so the pattern must be read from the card count and the flow of substitutions.
Discipline was a major talking point. The match featured nine yellow cards and one red card, spread across both sides. ES Tunis picked up six yellows: A. Konate in the 41st minute, N. Laifi in the 73rd, H. Jelassi in the 86th, and C. Jebali and M. Ben Ali both in the 89th. ES Zarzis accumulated four yellows, two in the first half and two more in the second, plus a red card for H. Ghanmi in the 100th minute, deep into stoppage time. That red card forced ES Zarzis to finish the match with ten men, effectively ending any hope of a late equaliser.
The card count suggests a match that was competitive but increasingly fractious as it wore on. ES Zarzis made five substitutions to ES Tunis’s three, perhaps indicating a greater need to chase the game or refresh tired legs after the early yellow cards. ES Tunis, by contrast, were able to protect their lead with fewer changes, relying on their defensive organisation and the discipline of their outfield players, barring the cautions.
Without individual match ratings or detailed possession and shot data, the performance cannot be broken down by player. However, the scorer H. Rafia was the match-winner, and the defensive unit, including the unnamed goalkeeper and back four, clearly did enough to keep a clean sheet. The midfield, likely anchored by the booked A. Konate and N. Laifi, provided the necessary screen. For ES Zarzis, the forwards were unable to find a breakthrough, a frustration that boiled over into the late red card.
The result gives ES Tunis the Cup, a significant trophy in the domestic schedule. For ES Zarzis, the defeat will be particularly painful given the proximity of the final and the fact that they held out for over an hour. The Lemeister model had projected a 1-0 away win, which proved exactly correct, confirming that the pre-match expectation of a tight, low-scoring contest was accurate. The final, in the end, was decided by a single moment of quality from H. Rafia and a defensive resilience that ES Zarzis could not overcome, even before their numerical disadvantage in stoppage time.
