Erbil v Baghdad: the model read
Erbil meet Baghdad in the Iraqi League regular season - 38 at Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil. The model makes Erbil the most likely outcome at 57%, with the full read 57% ERB, 24% draw, 18% BAG.
Erbil rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1707 to 1400. Recent form leans Erbil, 80% against 26%. Attacking output favors Erbil on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 75%. Draw no bet leans Erbil at 76%; double chance reads Erbil or draw 82%, Baghdad or draw 43%.
Erbil arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 11 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Baghdad, W 2-1 @ Zakho, W 2-0 @ Al Shorta, L 0-1 v Newroz.
Baghdad are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Karbala, L 1-3 @ Erbil, L 1-3 v Gharraf, W 4-1 @ Diyala.
Erbil hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Erbil 3-1 Baghdad.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output